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Q4 | 2024 | REAL ESTATE MARKET UPDATE

January 17th, 2025

 

SOUTH SANTA BARBARA COUNTY REAL ESTATE MARKET UPDATE


After a turbulent 2024 and one of the slowest years for national home sales in decades, there is optimism on the horizon. Economic data, unemployment figures, the Fed’s decision on rates, and the presidential election were all factors that created uncertainty and market volatility. Locally, our market weathered the storm better than expected.





2024 REAL ESTATE TRENDS & 2025 PREDICTIONS

  • South Santa Barbara County’s market is unique; inventory rose in 2024, as did the number of sales. We have major limitations on construction, which further keeps the inventory tight.
  • Santa Barbara’s popularity continues to increase. There was a 12% rise in the average sales price and a nearly 4% increase in median sales price, reflecting strong demand across all tiers of homes.
  • Predictions for mortgage rates are split down the middle. The rate volatility of 2024 will likely continue in 2025 due to inflation.
  • Santa Barbara County’s highest and one of the country’s highest sales of 2024 was at 2781 Padaro Lane, for $96 million. Also, in 2024, there were 13 sales over $20 million compared to only 4 in 2023. The 2025 luxury market outlook is strong. The market will continue to appreciate.
  • Historically, the number of sales has risen the year after an election year, and many are forecasting national recovery and growth in 2025. 
  • In 2020, Santa Barbara’s average sold price per sq ft was $767. In 2025, that figure has climbed to $1,411—a remarkable 54% appreciation in just five years. For Montecito, we saw the average sold price per sq ft at $1,064 in 2020; thus far this year, that figure has increased to $1,898, a 56% increase. In Hope Ranch, the average price per sq ft in 2020 was $1,060; today, that figure has nearly increased 72%, with the average sq ft price at $1,480.
  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose approximately 48% over the same period. Local luxury real estate doesn’t just follow the market—it often outperforms it. The cost of entry is high, but our market is still considered a value compared to other areas. And it has historically proven to have appreciating assets that offer much more than financial return.

The situation in LA is unfolding, and I am writing this newsletter just one week after the LA fires broke out. To those experiencing immense loss in one of these areas, our hearts are with you. South Santa Barbara County offers the most sought-after climate, community, lifestyle, real estate, outdoor activities, and culture worldwide. The barrier to entry is high, but there is no other community like it. Our area’s market and those surrounding Los Angeles will undoubtedly see a boost in demand in the foreseeable future. Insurance will continue to be an issue, and we are monitoring the current insurance moratorium situation closely. Sellers, 2025 is shaping up to be a profitable year. With home prices expected to rise, it’s the perfect time to consider listing your property to maximize returns. Buyers, rising home prices suggest that acting sooner could be more advantageous. Contact us to strategize your homeownership path.

CONTACT US

ALL Q4 Sales

NOTE: This is not in any way an official advertisement or publication of these properties. Data from The MLS and CORT for October 1, 2024 through December 31, 2024 and represents properties listed or sold by various brokers. The MLS, CORT, and Marsha Kotlyar Estate Group do not guarantee and are not in any way responsible for its accuracy, and data maintained may not reflect all real estate activity in the market. If your house is currently listed, this is not intended to be a solicitation. Based on information obtained from the MLS as of December 31, 2024. Display of MLS data is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed accurate by the MLS. The Broker/Agent contained herein may or may not have been the Listing and/or Selling Agent.

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